Frequently asked questions.
What is MarketModel Trades?
MarketModel Trades is a professional trading signal service that delivers daily S&P 500 signals based on macroeconomic analysis. Designed for traders, RIAs, and asset managers, it helps you time the market with precision using high-probability setups.
How does MarketModel generate its trading signals?
MarketModel uses a proprietary macroeconomic model to evaluate risk and reward conditions daily. Signals are generated based on macro data, cycles, sentiment trends, and valuation metrics—delivering a single, clear action each day: Buy, Hold, or Sell.
Who is MarketModel Trades designed for?
MarketModel is built for serious investors, including:
Active traders seeking high-conviction trade signals
RIAs managing client capital
Asset managers seeking risk-adjusted outperformance
Accredited investors looking to grow personal wealth with disciplined signals
What markets does MarketModel focus on?
MarketModel specializes in S&P 500 trading signals, offering exposure to U.S. equities with a strategy that scales up or down based on probability-driven conditions. The preferred trading vehicle of the system is ES Futures, Micro ES Futures or SPY.
What if I don’t trade futures? Can I still use MarketModel signals?
Yes—you don’t need to trade futures to benefit from MarketModel Trades, but futures are the most efficient way to execute our signals for those who are comfortable with them.
Many subscribers use a mix of the following instruments:
Micro E-mini Futures (MES) - Perfect for traders seeking precise exposure with small position sizes and low capital requirements. Micro futures offer the best way to scale into trades, exactly as the model does—ideal for executing the signal with tight control over risk and margin.
S&P 500 ETFs like SPY - Widely available, SPY and similar ETFs are a simple way to mirror MarketModel’s signals. You can easily adjust position sizing (80%, 140%, 200% exposure) using cash, leverage, or margin in a standard brokerage account.
Options Strategies Based on the Signals - Many advanced traders use the daily signals to structure SPY call spreads, put hedges, or delta-neutral strategies based on the macro signal’s direction and conviction level. For example, a Buy signal might trigger a bull call spread or a put credit spread, while a Sell signal could lead to reduced exposure or protective puts.
Stock Traders - While MarketModel is focused on the S&P 500 index, many stock traders use the model’s macro timing signals to align their stock entries and exits with broader market conditions—timing risk-on/risk-off shifts more effectively using QQQ, IWM, or individual stock names in the index.
Whether you trade futures, ETFs, options, or individual stocks, MarketModel gives you a high-conviction, macro-based signal to anchor your trading decisions.
Futures (especially Micro E-mini contracts) remain the most efficient execution method, but the model is flexible enough to adapt to your preferred trading instruments.
Is MarketModel a stock picking service?
No. MarketModel provides macro-based timing signals for trading the overall S&P 500. It’s not a stock-picking service—it’s a systematic market model designed to capture major moves in the index.
What is the track record of MarketModel Trades?
MarketModel has outperformed the S&P 500 consistently over time:
+465% backtested return (1999–2012)
+186% return since 2020 with an 83% win rate
5.9x return vs. 2.6x for the S&P 500 over the last decade
9-0 winning trades since 2024
How are risk and capital managed in the strategy?
The model uses a scaling system:
Stays in cash or will enter short when probabilities are low
Gradually increases long exposure from 80% to 200% based on macro signals. This allows for risk-controlled entries and aggressive scaling only when conditions are favorable.
When do I receive the trading signals?
Subscribers receive a daily signal via email around 4:00pm, before the market closes. Each signal includes a simple action—Buy, Hold, or Sell—along with brief market and macro commentary.
Can I use MarketModel Trades with futures or ETFs?
Yes. While designed around the S&P 500, the signals are applicable to futures traders, ETF investors (like SPY, QQQ), or anyone trading large-cap index exposure.
What do I get in the weekly MarketModel Sunday report?
Every Sunday, MarketModel Trades publishes a detailed macro outlook and trading strategy for the upcoming week—exclusive to subscribers. This report provides the context behind the signals, helping you understand not just what we’re doing, but why. The Sunday report gives you a full-picture view of market structure, macro pressure points, and actionable trading context—before the week begins. Combined with our daily signals, it ensures you’re never reacting blindly.
It’s perfect for:
Traders building a weekly plan of attack
RIAs prepping for client rebalancing or tactical shifts
Options traders seeking confirmation for directional bets
Investors who want to understand market risk before Monday
Is there a free trial or refund policy?
MarketModel offers a free intro newsletter for users to preview insights before subscribing. Paid subscriptions are non-refundable, as signals and performance data are considered delivered services.
How is MarketModel different from other signal services?
MarketModel stands out by combining:
A single clear signal per day - no confusion, no chatrooms, no overtrading
Transparent performance tracking (Good luck asking other services for detailed performance tracking)
Industry leading macro analysis
A proven 12+ year track record, most other services haven’t seen a bear market.
What happens during a stock market crash or correction?
During high-risk periods like a stock market crash or bull market correction, MarketModel’s system reduces exposure—often staying in cash or minimizing risk—until probabilities align. This helps protect capital while preparing for the next high-confidence move.
How do I get started with MarketModel Trades?
You can start by subscribing to the free newsletter for macro insights and past trade previews, or join the full service for daily signals and model access. Sign up at MarketModel.com to begin.